Quick Summary:
Experts and activists clash over subsidy reinstatement and palliatives as petrol prices surge past N1,300 per litre.
Experts and civil society organizations are divided over whether the Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration should reinstate fuel subsidies or introduce new palliatives to cushion the impact of soaring petrol prices driven by global crude oil shocks.
The surge follows the 24-day conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, which has disrupted global energy markets and pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, far exceeding Nigeria’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64.
While the spike has boosted Nigeria’s oil revenue, it has also worsened domestic inflation and eroded purchasing power.
Petrol prices have risen by about N492 (56%), climbing from N875 in late February to between N1,367 and N1,390 per litre as of March 23, 2026. The increase has triggered higher transport fares and food prices, intensifying hardship for millions of Nigerians earning the N70,000 minimum wage.
Calls for Relief Measures
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) urged the Federal Government to adopt a coordinated policy framework to prevent energy-driven inflation.
Muda Yusuf, CPPE’s Chief Executive Officer, warned that the Middle East crisis could reverse Nigeria’s disinflation trend, which stood at 15.06% in February.
Similarly, Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) President Joe Ajaero said the government should act swiftly to ease the cost-of-living crisis.
In response to the crisis, the Oyo State Government approved a N10,000 wage allowance for civil servants to offset rising fuel costs.
Prof. Iledare: “Fuel Subsidy Return Misconceived”
Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics, Wumi Iledare, dismissed calls for the return of fuel subsidy, describing them as misguided and economically unsustainable.
Iledare argued that consumer fuel subsidies create market inefficiencies and welfare losses, diverting resources from critical sectors such as healthcare, education, infrastructure, and power.
Instead, he proposed targeted social interventions, improved energy governance, and strategic use of oil windfalls to strengthen economic resilience.
He also recommended crude oil discounts for local refineries, including Dangote Refinery, and the removal of import duties or VAT on petrol products to ease costs.
Rafsanjani: “Tinubu’s Govt Lacks Pro-People Policies”
In contrast, Auwal Rafsanjani, Executive Director of the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC) and Transparency International Nigeria, called for urgent pro-people policies to address the worsening hardship.
Rafsanjani criticized what he described as the absence of sympathetic and pro-poor policies, warning that the situation could deteriorate further without immediate intervention.
He described the situation as a disconnect between leaders and citizens, urging the government to adopt inclusive policies that prioritize the welfare of ordinary Nigerians.