Energy and food prices are expected to rise sharply through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027, according to the World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook.
The report attributes the projected increases to disruptions caused by conflicts in the Middle East and Europe. Damage to oil infrastructure and refineries, along with depleted reserves, is expected to push energy prices to a four-year high. Global maritime disruptions could also reduce grain supplies, while El Niño may threaten harvests and further undermine food affordability.
The World Bank forecasts a 32% increase in energy prices in 2026 and a 10% rise in food commodity prices. Overall commodity prices are expected to climb by 23% before declining by 7% in 2027. These estimates assume that the conflicts do not intensify significantly.
Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist, warned that higher commodity costs could worsen inflation, food insecurity, and economic weakness. He emphasized the need to protect vulnerable populations and assist low-income countries facing severe debt pressures.
To help countries manage these challenges, the World Bank said it has between $50 billion and $60 billion available through existing financial instruments, including $25 billion in pre-arranged financing. The institution also reaffirmed its commitment to supporting job creation and investing in young people across developing countries.
